With Labor clinching a record-breaking victory in the 2025 Australian Federal Election, the Albanese government has been handed a decisive mandate to accelerate the delivery of renewable energy and establish an environmental protection agency.
Clean Energy Council CEO Kane Thornton described the election as a “referendum on renewable energy.” The Australian people have reconfirmed their “strong support for wind and solar backed by batteries, pumped hydro and a small amount of gas,” Mr Thornton said.
But while Dutton’s energy policy was nothing short of a nuclear disaster, the entire Liberal campaign, which bumbled and stumbled, highlighted more fundamental problems within a party gasping for air.
Presidential-style popularity
Despite early setbacks – most notably the failed Voice to Parliament referendum, which threatened to scupper Labor’s campaign – Albanese displayed restraint and tenacity to secure a historic win. While Tanya Plibersek’s presence loomed in the background, it was Albanese who ultimately sparked Labor’s campaign.
His popularity surged in the dying stages of the campaign, with satisfaction ratings peaking at 51% on May 2, compared to Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s 34%. Labor’s ‘comeback kid’ overcame internal party jitters and a restless electorate to re-establish himself as a unifying symbol, particularly among young, female and multicultural voters in metropolitan seats.
For Dutton, it went from bad to worse. Dumped from his seat of Dickson by Labor newcomer Ali France, with a 7% swing, Dutton made history in the worst possible way by becoming the first Opposition leader to lose their seat. Albanese didn’t just crush the Liberal Party’s spirits – he drove it deeper into the wilderness.
Dutton’s signature fuel excise cut bombed as a cost-of-living policy in metropolitan areas, particularly among cyclists, EV owners, and public transport commuters. Dutton’s credibility took another beating due to several policy backflips, such as his work-from-home policy, which shattered the Liberals’ already delicate standing with women voters.
In rural WA, the Liberals’ support of the ‘Keep the Sheep’ campaign had success in Canning, Durack and O’Connor with swings of 1-7%. The prized seat of Bullwinkel is still too close to call, with Trish Cook leading by 185 votes. But ultimately, it had little influence in the cities, exiling the Liberal brand to the regions and rendering the party irrelevant to the cities.
Winds of change
The Coalition’s biggest fault line was undoubtedly its energy policy. Dutton’s nuclear gamble was smashed by a raft of successful negative campaigns. While some circles backed nuclear power, polling showed that most Australians viewed renewables like wind and solar as faster, cheaper, and more acceptable.
Dutton put offshore wind in his sights from day one, campaigning in regional seats earmarked for projects, claiming that offshore wind farms would harm whales, commercial fishing and sea views. The Coalition pledged to block 4 of Labor’s 6 offshore wind zones. In the WA seat of Forrest, the Liberal vote slipped from 43% in 2022 to 31%, while independent Sue Chapman, who supported offshore wind, claimed 18% of the primary vote.
Labor capitalised on the complexities of Dutton’s nuclear policy by delivering a pragmatic renewable energy policy backed by the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund, $15 billion for priority interconnectors and $2.3 billion for the Cheaper Home Batteries Program.
In Victoria and New South Wales, the Coalition’s nuclear push proved toxic, especially in metropolitan seats. To mimic the late Mike Willesee: if the answer to nuclear is so complex, the Coalition has a bigger problem with its overall energy policy.
Party at the crossroads
Dutton’s pounding at the hands of Albanese has sparked burning questions within Liberal circles about the Party’s brand, direction and leadership. In Victoria, the Liberals are in disarray with household seats such as Deakin – and Shadow Minister Michael Sukkar – gone, and Menzies – along with rising Keith Wholagan – all but gone, while Kooyong – once held by Josh Frydenberg – is on a knife’s edge.
NSW didn’t fare much better, with Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs David Coleman losing Banks, while incumbents held onto the prized seats of Bennelong and Wentworth, once home to Prime Ministers John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull. In South Australia, James Stevens dropped Sturt, once held by moderate heavyweight Christopher Pyne, while the Apple Isle is now a black hole for the Liberals, with Bass and Braddon flipping to Labor.
But the Coalition’s most shocking losses were in the heartlands of Queensland and WA. Labor cleaned up in Bonner, Brisbane, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie. In WA, Labor posted swings of 2-4% in the key seats of Pearce and Tangney, while claiming the scalp of Moore. Despite a big-spending Liberal campaign, Curtin remains in the hands of popular independent Kate Chaney.
Green shoots?
It’s difficult to see any positives for the party of Howard and Menzies, but some green shoots could emerge in NSW, Victoria and WA. While conservative and Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor and Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, a moderate from the NSW seat of Farrer, seem like shoo-ins for Opposition Leader, centrist and Shadow Minister for Immigration Dan Tehan shapes as someone who could rebuild the Liberal brand in Victoria, while offering broader national appeal.
Victorian moderate Tim Goldstein, who came from the clouds to reclaim Goldstein from teal Zoe Pink, has since declared his openness to putting his hand up for Opposition Leader. In WA, Shadow Defence Minister and conservative Andrew Hastie posted a 4.7% swing due to a strong grassroots campaign. While Hastie has declared he won’t contest for Opposition Leader, at 42, he can keep his powder dry.
In the Shadow Cabinet, NSW MPs like Shadow Minister for Communications Melissa McIntosh, a conservative, and past Shadow Attorney General Julian Leeser, a moderate, are expected to make the cut. Rising stars such as Queensland’s Angie Bell (Moncrief), Victoria’s Mary Aldred (Monash) and WA’s Ben Small (Forrest) are expected to make the jump into the Shadow Ministry.
With up to a dozen seats still in play, it’s a case of watch this space until the dust settles on the 2025 Federal Election and the new party room decides who will carry the Liberals’ hopes. Without taking anything away from Albanese’s victory, the Liberal Party must rebuild with pragmatic policies and fresh candidates that reflect today’s Australia, not yesterdays.
