This week, the stage was officially set. With Jim Chalmers delivering the Federal Budget, Peter Dutton offering his budget reply, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese officially calling the election for May 3, we now enter a five-week sprint to the polls. If there’s one thing both sides have made crystal clear, it’s this: 2025 will be a cost-of-living election.
But the real question isn’t just about cost of living. It’s about what kind of relief voters want, and who they believe can actually deliver it. Do Australians want cheaper petrol or cheaper power bills? Because based on this week’s rhetoric, they probably can’t have both.
Peter Dutton, having spent months criticising Labor’s relief measures as inflationary sugar hits, walked a tightrope in his budget reply. Could he offer real relief without falling into the same trap? His answer was a halved fuel excise for 12 months, saving households about $700–$750 per vehicle annually, or roughly $14 a week. It’s something, but it begs comparison: is that more or less than what most Australians will gain from Labor’s tax cuts and power bill rebates?
More interesting, and arguably more impactful, was Dutton’s pivot to energy policy. His proposed National Gas Plan is the Coalition’s flagship economic play. A 20% domestic gas reservation for the east coast, taking from existing projects while honouring foundation contracts, is aimed at bringing wholesale gas prices down from over $14 to below $10 a gigajoule. It’s a big idea, and one that speaks directly to the looming gas shortfall expected by the end of the decade.
Dutton also made a point of reiterating his backing of Western Australia’s most critical piece of gas infrastructure, the North West Shelf. Gas enables a broad range of critical industries in Western Australia, including minerals processing, fertiliser manufacturing, chemicals, construction materials, power generation, and agriculture, making it essential to the state’s economy and more than 400,000 jobs, so this is no doubt music to WA industry’s ears.
As Australia faces looming gas supply challenges by 2030, the notion of importing LNG in one of the world’s most resource-rich regions is, frankly, absurd, so credit to Dutton for the boldness of his National Gas Plan announcement. His message? Australian gas should be for Australians. It’s a politically savvy line, but a complicated promise. WA’s domestic reservation policy has taken years to get right, and federal intervention in East Coast gas markets will be no different.
Dutton’s policy goes further, proposing an immediate 20% domestic reservation, which, while bold, isn’t without risk. It effectively forces gas producers to redirect a fifth of their high-value LNG exports into the domestic market at local prices, raising legitimate questions about sovereign risk. In contrast, WA’s approach applies to new projects, giving proponents clear rules before they invest. It’s a reminder that while ambition is necessary, getting the mechanics right is what ultimately determines success.
Credit where it’s due, ambition is needed, and this would be a bold structural reform. If done right, it could underpin manufacturing, secure energy supply, and ensure the broader “Future Made in Australia” agenda isn’t just a tagline.
Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King has already flagged a review of the gas market regulatory framework later this year, carefully noting that the government doesn’t want to politicise the process. But with Dutton now squarely planting his flag, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Labor move sooner, especially if they can find a way to publicly align on the principle that gas, done right, still has a place in Australia’s energy transition.
Dutton also flagged investment in pipeline and storage infrastructure, including a proposed pipeline from Queensland to the southern states, to be confirmed in further detail after consultation with industry. Another practical step, if not a costly one.
On housing, Dutton proposed a 25% cut to the permanent migration intake, prioritising critical skills and suggesting it could free up the equivalent of 100,000 homes. It’s a headline-grabber, but its success will depend on who’s excluded, how it’s managed, and whether the skills shortfall in construction and care sectors is exacerbated.
For small business, one of the more quietly significant announcements was around the instant asset write-off. Labor had slashed the popular scheme to just $1,000. Dutton promised to restore it to $30,000 and make it permanent, an attractive proposition for small businesses hungry for certainty, and one likely to resonate in regional electorates.
Other announcements included a strong defense focus, with new funding to equip the ADF for the strategic challenges ahead. In health, Dutton pledged $400 million for youth mental health and a doubling of the Medicare rebate for psychology sessions, both areas where unmet need is rising fast.
With Prime Minister Albanese officially kicking off the election campaign, the lines are now drawn. Labor is banking on steady economic stewardship and broad-based tax relief. The Coalition is betting that targeted, tangible measures like cheaper fuel, more gas, and small business incentives, will land better with voters.
In the end, Dutton’s reply was calculated, serious, and tailored to the countries most immediate concerns, and it signals that the Coalition is betting big on a gas-led strategy as both an energy and economic reform lever.
One thing’s for sure: the cost-of-living contest is officially underway. And the pitch has now been made. Choose your pressure point, petrol or power bills?
