From 1 January 2028, the NDIS is expected to operate under a materially different set of rules, with the Federal Government moving to legislate significant reform this year. While the detail is still being worked through Parliament, the direction is clear.
The scheme, in its current form, is not considered sustainable, and both the policy and political momentum behind change are strong.
For organisations across disability and care, this is a defined transition that brings both pressure and opportunity.
To understand what comes next, it is important to look beyond the policy detail and consider the political context shaping it.
Labor is now reshaping the scheme it originally championed. With around 760,000 participants and costs exceeding $50 billion annually, the financial trajectory alone demands intervention. More importantly, public sentiment has shifted. Concerns around waste, fraud and long-term affordability have created clear permission for government to act.
Labor has read that shift carefully. They know they need to be seen Australian’s money responsibly, and that there’s political upside in making disciplined decisions. That includes tightening a program they once created. This context matters because it reinforces that the direction of reform is unlikely to soften.
The changes themselves reflect that intent.
Eligibility is expected to move further away from diagnosis alone and toward a person’s functional capacity and how their condition impacts daily living. Participation is likely to reduce over time, with fewer people entering the scheme and some current participants transitioning out. At the same time, oversight will tighten, spending categories will be more controlled, and providers will operate within more structured payment and compliance systems.
Taken together, these shifts will reshape demand, funding flows and operating expectations across the sector.
The critical question for organisations is not whether they are exposed to this change. Most are. The more important question is how they respond.
A common instinct will be to continue pushing back on the direction of reform. That response is understandable, but it often comes at a cost. Time spent resisting the policy direction is time not spent preparing for the system that is being built.
The organisations that navigate this type of transition well tend to take a different approach.
They accept the direction early. Not because they agree with every element, but because they recognise that the core objectives around sustainability, control and accountability are now firmly set and politically reinforced. That clarity allows them to move faster and make more deliberate decisions.
They shift from opposition to problem solving. Government is entering a complex implementation phase and will rely on credible partners to make reform work in practice. Organisations that engage constructively on design, transition pathways and service gaps are far more likely to influence outcomes.
They go deep on the detail. In the next phase of the NDIS, success will be shaped by the mechanics. Assessment frameworks, pricing settings, registration requirements and compliance obligations will all matter. Organisations that understand this early will be better positioned to adapt their models with confidence.
They prepare before they are forced to. This includes reviewing client mix and revenue exposure, strengthening evidence of outcomes and functional impact, upgrading systems for payments and compliance, and ensuring workforce models can respond to shifts in demand. Early action creates options. Late action limits them.
For many organisations, this is also a moment to reconsider positioning. As the scheme tightens, there will be greater emphasis on measurable outcomes, clear value and the ability to operate across both NDIS and non-NDIS pathways. Those that can demonstrate this will be better placed to grow, even in a more constrained environment.
This is also where many organisations will need to think differently about how they engage externally. In a more contested and scrutinised environment, strategic communication, public positioning and government engagement become critical capabilities, not optional ones. The ability to clearly articulate impact, influence policy conversations and build credibility with decision makers will increasingly shape outcomes.
Purple works closely with organisations across disability, aged care and adjacent sectors to navigate moments like this. That includes supporting leaders to position their organisations clearly, engage constructively with government and communicate with confidence through periods of change.
The next phase of the NDIS will not look like the last.
Some organisations will remain focused on challenging holding back the tide. Others will focus on the system that is emerging and the role they want to play within it.
The difference between those two approaches will be significant. The organisations that move early, engage constructively and prepare with intent will not just adapt to reform. They will help define what comes next.
